Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 57573.063508 60969.413540 64371.620150 68032.697517 71858.241049 75734.943181 79957.744470
2024-11-03 52505.056113 57717.872789 63092.024201 69037.827191 75423.001313 82065.247028 89488.464434
2024-11-10 48852.847390 55303.951252 62105.840941 69794.151673 78224.525358 87169.002245 97357.929648
2024-11-17 45820.239007 53174.396202 61076.225143 70168.371893 80310.774940 91246.309490 103897.338863
2024-11-24 43116.226564 51151.777185 59931.046712 70191.795821 81809.941118 94511.742350 109401.867204
2024-12-01 41009.089869 49628.570765 59187.948368 70516.955703 83515.153157 97900.067109 114959.181324
2024-12-08 39013.791135 48098.004469 58314.088284 70577.894562 84820.056710 100757.841380 119857.462916
2024-12-15 37808.080770 47399.018552 58320.966252 71583.564576 87152.306348 104746.631381 126026.485473
2024-12-22 36083.436929 45994.788077 57422.261985 71456.192872 88104.546822 107099.500570 130278.987440
2024-12-29 35202.613375 45545.465136 57603.144425 72560.260045 90469.509939 111075.516502 136418.019705
2025-01-05 34191.715644 44884.498085 57484.880240 73267.445523 92334.839096 114450.670370 141853.367863
2025-01-12 32920.175767 43847.116454 56862.156616 73321.558980 93382.975486 116836.548440 146109.457762
2025-01-19 31562.639092 42667.505225 56039.741348 73116.539226 94116.762554 118863.874618 149977.643488
2025-01-26 30917.606099 42355.561626 56264.090911 74180.523437 96387.926325 122741.872728 156089.299257
2025-02-02 30191.612849 41908.112869 56293.023645 74981.354017 98324.716673 126216.392334 161729.948490
2025-02-09 29323.832419 41243.298988 56018.754373 75377.594543 99743.870770 129054.599186 166604.324363
2025-02-16 28339.034851 40389.856060 55472.874930 75402.392721 100678.228989 131286.786712 170737.179703
2025-02-23 27552.930950 39767.804338 55196.701320 75746.685230 101996.445935 133984.123146 175446.003984
2025-03-02 26688.895299 39011.932100 54720.853984 75811.207743 102943.381678 136212.162937 179576.353973
2025-03-09 26294.341643 38868.628464 55028.116488 76875.930299 105158.124269 140025.479484 185695.177533
2025-03-16 25424.363041 38053.286094 54429.087074 76741.088842 105822.500838 141888.655150 189380.563965
2025-03-23 25123.829453 38003.337433 54831.438692 77909.814010 108163.877380 145871.749341 195747.116739
2025-03-30 24672.214936 37728.696303 54921.629581 78658.308451 109958.714683 149168.954468 201266.417363